The short version
- 1262 AI products send 51% of everyone who lands on Stripe’s hosted checkout. Video and image generation alone is 17.1%.
- 2Their monthly checkout visits grew +32% from April to September, +14% without the one runaway (higgsfield.ai, 143×).
- 33D generation (+150%) and model APIs (+61%) are rising fastest. Voice and music is big but flat (+6%).
- 4New merchant-of-record checkouts grew +32% in five months, from a base 1/143 the size of Stripe Checkout.
- 5The whole data pull cost under a dollar and can be repeated in an afternoon.
Stand outside the bank
You want to know which shops on a street do good business, but shops don’t publish their takings. So you stand outside the bank and watch each person walking in with a deposit bag, noting which shop they came out of.
The internet has a bank door for online shops: the checkout page. Every customer who pays through Stripe lands on checkout.stripe.com, and traffic-analytics tools record the page each visitor came from. Reverse the table and you have a ranked list of sellers: the more people a site sends to the checkout, the more people are trying to pay it.
We ran that play on 15 checkouts at once, then asked a simple question: where is the AI money?
How we did it
- 1
Choose the doors
Stripe Checkout and Payment Links, PayPal, Gumroad, Square, Mollie, Razorpay, Paystack, Coinbase Commerce and the newer merchant-of-record players (Lemon Squeezy, Paddle, Polar, Creem, Dodo Payments).
- 2
Pull each referral report
For every checkout domain we read the six-month referral report: which sites send visitors, how many, how that changed. The scraper we used cost three to four cents per report, so the whole pull, retries included, came in well under a dollar. On Lovely Router the same report is $0.06.
- 3
Merge into sites
Subdomains (app.example.com, www.example.com) were folded into one site, giving 9,542 distinct sites.
- 4
Remove the noise
Search engines, social networks, AI assistants and the payment providers themselves are channels, not sellers. We kept them out of the rankings.
- 5
Sort the AI products by hand
Similarweb’s own categories are noisy (one AI video lab shows up under “Romance”), so we labelled the senders ourselves: the biggest by hand, the rest from our own knowledge, web searches and a look at their homepages. 262 of the AI products we found send people to Stripe Checkout; we sorted them into niches.
- 6
Rebuild the monthly curve
Each site’s monthly share of the checkout’s traffic, times that month’s total, gives an estimate of its visits per month, which is how we measured April → September.
- 7
Sanity-check and export
We compared totals across providers, flagged the odd ones (see “what this can’t tell you”), and exported the rankings as spreadsheets.
What we found
1 · AI is about half of Stripe’s hosted checkout
262 AI products account for 92M of 182M visits. Counting just the domain ending: 28% of all visits come from .ai sites, before you count suno.com, runwayml.com or midjourney.com.
- Video & image generation+61%31.1MThe biggest pot — and one runaway winner. higgsfield.ai · runwayml.com · kling.ai
- Voice, music & audio+6%18.2MHuge, steady, already crowned. elevenlabs.io · suno.com · turboscribe.ai
- Coding agents & app builders+20%12.5MBuilders paying to build. opencode.ai · emergent.sh · kiro.dev
- Model APIs & inference+61%11.5MPicks and shovels, fast risers. nousresearch.com · fal.ai · minimax.io
- Writing, detection & translation+12%5.7MA smaller pot, growing steadily. undetectable.ai · gptzero.me · immersivetranslate.com
- 3D generation+150%3.9MSmall base, fastest growth. tripo3d.ai · meshy.ai · customuse.com
- Chatbots & companions−4%2.3MChat apps, model bundles and AI companions. paxhistoria.co · uare.ai · chatlyai.app
- Other AI+251%1.8MChatbots, agents and everything else. forgegui.com · starii.com · whatbrandonthinks.com
- Productivity & meetings−27%1.4MMeetings, documents and decks. clipto.com · parakeet-ai.com · plaud.ai
- Agents & automation−54%1.3MAI that does the work, not just answers. hyperagent.com · abacus.ai · onghost.com
- Marketing, ads & SEO−47%947KAds, content and search, automated. searchatlas.com · get-ryze.ai · adspirer.ai
- Study & education+21%891KTutors, homework help and study tools. turbo.ai · gizmo.ai · studley.ai
- Search & data−30%520KSearch, research and data. consensus.app · scite.ai · scalios.ai
2 · One breakout, then a market that is still moving
higgsfield.ai went from 19.3K to 2.8M monthly checkout visits. Excluding it, AI products still grew +14%, but video and image generation was −6%: the category’s growth came from a single company. Winners take most of the new money.
- nousresearch.com3.7×478K131K in April → 478K in September
- opencode.ai2.6×1M385K in April → 1M in September
- meshy.ai2.6×672K259K in April → 672K in September
- fal.ai1.6×607K387K in April → 607K in September
- openart.ai1.4×627K461K in April → 627K in September
- midjourney.com−34%427K427K in April → 282K in September
- csfloat.com−33%643K643K in April → 430K in September
- emergent.sh−31%427K427K in April → 295K in September
3 · The top is concentrated, the tail is wide
The top 10 senders account for 27% of Stripe Checkout’s traffic and the top 50 for 52%. Yet 309 sites each sent over 100K visits, and 24% of the traffic comes from sites with no global rank: new products and app subdomains that top-sites lists don’t see yet.
- 9.7MVideo & image generation
- 7.3MVoice, music & audio
- 6.7MVoice, music & audio
- 4.2MCoding agents & app builders
- 3.8MVideo & image generation
- 3MVideo & image generation
- 2.8MVoice, music & audio
- 2.6MModel APIs & inference
- 2.4MVideo & image generation
- 2MModel APIs & inference
4 · The challengers are small and growing fast
Together, Lemon Squeezy, Paddle, Polar, Creem and Dodo Payments send 0.71M visits a month, 1.7% of Stripe Checkout, but up +33% since April. Dodo (+81%), Creem (+39%) and Polar (+37%) are the movers; Lemon Squeezy is flat (+1%). A merchant of record handles sales tax and VAT for you, which is why solo builders look at them.
- Stripe Checkout+12%43M
- Stripe Payment Links+6%3M
- Gumroad−6%2M
- Polar+37%192K
- Dodo Payments+81%181K
- Lemon Squeezy+1%139K
- Paddle+19%121K
- Creem+39%77K
5 · PayPal is a different market
PayPal moves 124M visits a month, three times Stripe Checkout, but the top senders are marketplaces: ebay.com, ebay.de, etsy.com, temu.com. It is the consumer-shopping door, not the AI-builder door. Regional checkouts have their own shape: Paystack is 24% sports betting, Razorpay is 21% fashion.
Turning a referrer list into a revenue estimate
Checkout visits aren’t revenue, but they’re the last step before it. A rough model: monthly checkout visits × share that complete × average first payment. Play with your own assumptions below, then pick a product from the dataset and sanity-check it against what you know.
An illustration, not a forecast: checkout visits are modelled estimates, repeat renewals and refunds are not included, and we have no access to any company’s real revenue.
What this can’t tell you
- It’s modelled data. Traffic figures are estimates from a third-party panel. Trust ranks and ratios more than exact counts.
- Visits aren’t purchases. We can’t see completion, price, refunds or renewals. The calculator’s answers are only as good as your assumptions.
- Some checkouts are blunt. paypal.com includes logins and wallet traffic; gumroad.com includes its marketplace. Stripe Checkout (hosted) is the cleanest.
- Missing referrers. Some sites strip the referrer or embed checkout in a pop-up, so they’re undercounted. Payments through embedded Stripe Elements don’t pass through a hosted page at all.
- Noisy months. A few checkouts moved sharply in single months (Razorpay, Shopify, Coinbase Commerce); we treat those as likely data artifacts and don’t build conclusions on them.
- Our AI labels are judgement calls, made largely by language models reading search results and homepages, and not verified with the companies. Some will be wrong and small unrecognised sites are left out, so treat the AI total as an estimate.
Repeat it for any site or checkout
The referral report for any domain is one API call. Lovely Router’s site-referrals tool returns the same kind of report we pulled for each checkout: the top referring sites with visits, share and rank.
# who sends visitors to a checkout? ($0.06 per call)
curl https://lovelyrouter.com/v1/tools/site-referrals/run \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $LOVELY_KEY" \
-H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-d '{"input": {"website": "checkout.stripe.com"}}'
# → { "items": [ { "domain": "higgsfield.ai", "visits": 9671010,
# "share_percent": 4.93, "global_rank": 866, ... }, ... ] }Then, per seller: pull its own traffic and top keywords with website-traffic, and compare. The rest is a spreadsheet. We published ours, so you can start from the finished table.